Comparing the severity of Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 between RT-PCR-positive and RT-PCR-negative Individuals in Iran Comparing the severity of Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 between RT-PCR-positive and RT-PCR-negative Individuals in Iran (preprint)

The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive and RT-PCR negative Patients in Iran. This cohort study performed on 81393 patients with COVID-19 in six provinces of Iran during 2020. The studied variables include demographic and clinical. To examine the associations between RT-PCR test and death or ICU admission as dependent variable the multiple Bayesian logistic regression model was used by R software. 81393 individual (44.9 % female) with a mean age of 52.98 ± 20.8 years were included to the analysis. At all, 25434 tests (31.2 %) were positive RT-PCR, including 10772 men (44.9%) and 14662 women (55.1%). The multiple Bayesian logistic regression model showed a significant positive association between RT-PCR test results and COVID-19 mortality rate (OR: 1.46; 95% Crl: 1.29- 1.64). Also, males, older age, individual with chronic disease have higher risk of COVID-19 death, however, negative association observed between history of contact and COVID-19 death. We observed a significant inverse association between RT-PCR test results and ICU admission, while, the risk of ICU admission increased significantly by 1.2 times (95% Crl for odds ratio: 1.09, 1.34) among patients with negative RT-PCR test compared to positive RT-PCR test. People with positive RT-PCR test, male gender, older age, having a history of underlying disease have a higher risk of death and hospitalization in the ICU. Therefore, paying attention to these factors will be effective in reducing the risk of death and hospitalization in ICU.

Statistical Distribution of Novel coronavirus in Iran (preprint)

Background The Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by 2019-nCoV is spreading worldwide, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, have been affected. Prevention and control of infection is the most important priority for the public health. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is an important problem. Methods In this research, we compared the different distributions of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data of Iran. We used 36 initial data on new cases and deaths with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection of Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes .We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal and Weibull. Results Our study showed that the weibull distribution was the best fit with the data. But the Parameters of distribution were different between new cases and daily deaths data. Conclusion According to the mean and median of the best fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. The death rate is decreasing. We can see the similar behaviors of covid-19 in both Iran and China in the long run.